"Thresholds (Pr*)";"Assessment methods";In-sample;Out-of-sample
1993/02-2004/12;2005/01-2008/10;2008/11-2017/03
M1;M2;M1;M2;M1;M2
20%;"% of observations correctly called";59%;55%;61%;52%;34%;56%
"% of pre-crisis periods correctly called";56%;60%;96%;52%;23%;57%
"% of tranquil periods correctly called";40%;48%;81%;48%;32%;48%
"% of false alarms of total alarms";60%;60%;41%;43%;32%;22%
QPS;0.643;0.839;1.000;0.957;0.520;1.140
GSB;0.113;0.189;0.417;0.004;0.080;0.520
30%;"% of observations correctly called";69%;65%;59%;43%;27%;32%
"% of pre-crisis periods correctly called";44%;18%;80%;12%;7%;15%
"% of tranquil periods correctly called";18%;9%;67%;19%;12%;16%
"% of false alarms of total alarms";44%;54%;41%;57%;38%;27%
QPS;0.364;0.434;0.739;0.783;0.120;0.340
GSB;0.006;0.017;0.160;0.185;0.002;0.024
40%;"% of observations correctly called";63%;65%;54%;43%;25%;26%
"% of pre-crisis periods correctly called";20%;6%;56%;4%;0%;5%
"% of tranquil periods correctly called";14%;3%;48%;10%;0%;12%
"% of false alarms of total alarms";57%;50%;42%;67%;0%;43%
QPS;0.336;0.378;0.365;0.870;0.080;0.200
GSB;0.006;0.061;0.009;0.306;0.005;0.010
50%;"% of observations correctly called";66%;66%;50%;48%;25%;26%
"% of pre-crisis periods correctly called";16%;4%;36%;4%;0%;1%
"% of tranquil periods correctly called";6%;1%;33%;0%;0%;0%
"% of false alarms of total alarms";43%;33%;44%;0%;0%;0%
QPS;0.350;0.392;0.200;0.870;0.080;0.120
GSB;0.028;0.077;0.024;0.378;0.005;0.006