To estimate the amounts of GHG emissions in the long term, it is first of all necessary to construct realistic scenarios for the development of the economy that include structural changes, technological progress and many other aspects of economic existence of the country. In Russia, this task is performed both by public authorities, primarily the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, and by research and expert groups. In today’s international environment and economic conditions determined, among other things, by sanctions against Russian enterprises, falling energy prices and limited access to capital and technology, it is rather difficult to make forecasts for the economy as a whole or its individual industries. The slowdown in Russia’s GDP growth, increasing inflationary expectations, sharp decreases in the rouble exchange rate and capital outflow — all these will certainly have a significant impact on the development of the Russian economy in the short and probably in the medium term (Auzan et al., 2022).

In conditions of great uncertainty, in the near future it will be necessary to adjust the fundamental strategic documents outlining the development of the Russian economy and its key industries, e.g. the country’s Energy Strategy. By the time of writing, however, no official documents that take into account the impact of new conditions on long-term economic development have been released and so the scenarios of economic development and the forecasts of greenhouse gas emissions in Russia are based on the previously adopted targets and indicators. Given the long-term nature of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections, the evolution of emissions up to 2030–2035 is likely to depend more on fundamental economic and technological factors than on the short-term effects of the imposed sanctions. An important factor of the dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions in Russia is the size of the population (Papenov, 2020) that determines domestic demand for energy-intensive products, consumption of energy resources (heat, electricity, fuel), household waste, livestock emissions, and other parameters. According to some estimates, the depopulation trend that began in 1990 will lead to a reduction in the population to 137 million people in 2030. The UN scenarios for 2030 make pessimistic forecasts: in the worst case, the population of the country could be reduced to 92.4 million people by 2050. In our calculations we use the conservative estimate of the Russian population of 120 million people by 2050.

For the production of primary energy, Russia consumes about 700 million tons of oil equivalent of energy resources, about 90% of which are fossil fuels, i.e. oil, natural gas, coal. The remaining 10% come from low-carbon energy sources — nuclear, large hydropower and renewable energy (in 2012 its share was 0.1%). Long-term plans of development of Russia’s energy sector are determined by the Energy Strategy designed by the Russian Ministry of Energy with the participation of state bodies, research institutions and business organisations; the Government of the Russian Federation’s Decree dated November 13, 2009 No. 1715 officially approved the Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2030. In the long-term forecasts of the Russian Ministry of Energy, the dominant role in energy supply is still assigned to fossil energy resources. With an increase in domestic energy consumption by 24% in 2035, the ministry expects gas consumption to rise by 24% and coal by 9%, while no changes are anticipated in consumption of oil.

It is also worth noting that the technological base of the economy is close to the “upper limit” of emissions typical of countries with a similar level of per capita income. This may be explained by the peculiarities of the Russian economy, which is dominated by energy-intensive industries, and by continued use of outdated equipment inherited from the USSR. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, more than 70 percent of the production equipment in the cost structure is older than 20 years, which means that it was most likely installed during the Soviet period. About half of the equipment used by the large and medium-sized industrial enterprises is morally obsolete and physically worn out.

One of the most practical ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Russia is to promote energy efficiency and energy saving. The International Energy Agency estimates that energy efficiency measures will reduce global GHG emissions by 40% by 2050: 24% in the end-use fuel sector, 12% in electricity consumption, 7% in electricity generation and by switching to cleaner fuels. Russia’s potential for energy efficiency has been assessed by various organizations and expert groups. One of the latest studies by the World Bank and CEEF claims that Russia can “save” up to 45% of primary energy consumption if it implements a set of related measures. A study by the Energy Balance Forecasting Agency (APBE) shows that the energy saving potential that can be realized by 2020 reaches 250-275 million tons of standard fuel per year, or about 63% of Russia’s total potential. It estimates the total energy saving potential at 420 million, with 70% of this amount to be found in the five largest sectors, i.e. residential sector, electric power, industry, transport and heat supply. The size of the economic potential exceeds the amount of electricity and heat produced in the country minus generation losses, and accounts for more than a third of all fossil fuel consumption in Russia (excluding large hydropower). This means that replacing fossil fuels with alternative energy sources is feasible: the use of its impressive economic potential may increase the share of renewable energy sources in the country’s energy balance up to 25-30% releasing additional amounts of natural gas and oil for export (Nikonorov & Huseynova, 2023). These estimates do not take into account the territorial location of energy sources and demand for energy or the problem of timing between energy supply and consumption. The potential of renewable energy sources becomes especially significant given the minimal greenhouse gas emissions from their use in comparison with fossil fuels. Not only can Russia replace traditional fuels (gas, oil, coal) with alternative ones; in the future it can take a leading position in the field of renewable energy, in the market for renewable energy technologies, and ultimately become a major exporter of carbon-free types of energy resources (Nikonorov et al., 2020).

The global development of low-carbon technologies is one of the most effective ways of reducing the impact on climate system. An important source of information on current and future technologies is the International Energy Agency (IEA), which publishes special reports on this topic. IEA materials have been used to model GHG emissions in many studies. They show that the numbers of new trucks and cars using hybrid or electric engines, fuel cells (hydrogen), and liquefied gas are going to be really impressive, with the scale of implementation of up to 350 million units by 2050.

The decrease in the costs of using decarbonization technologies in the electric power industry is another significant indicator. For some of these technologies, cost reductions could reach 77% (solar) by 2050: the cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is expected to fall by 79% and that of electric vehicles by 58%. In power generation, however, there are additional obstacles: for example, a coal-fired thermal power plant on average has a service life of about 40 years or more. Commissioning, construction and exploitation of such power facilities create a strong inertia in the whole energy system, which makes switching to other types of energy resources practically impossible even if the necessity arises as no technical preparations were made in advance. In this respect, the benchmark to follow is the experience of the People’s Republic of China (Nikonorov et al., 2023).

The low-carbon transition scenario assumes the existence of a strategy and action plan to stimulate low-carbon development and their effective implementation in the key sectors of the economy, i.e. energy, transport, construction, communal services and manufacturing. Model calculations proceed from the assumption that the Russian economy and its key industries will grow at a high rate, the welfare of the population will increase, and effective measures will be taken to introduce low-carbon and carbon-free technologies (Tarkhov, 2019).

Significant reduction in GHG emissions after 2030-2035 can be achieved through the use of carbon capture and utilization (CCS) technology, which is believed to be currently available in Russia for commercial use. Also of great importance for the decarbonization of the economy is the large-scale use of renewable energy sources (RES) and other carbon-free energy sources. Upon reaching the Paris climate agreement goal of two degrees Celsius (2015), the structure of energy sources should undergo radical changes: coal combustion is to be reduced to almost zero, about 90% of gas should be used in universal gas mixtures (UGS), up to 22% of energy can come from nuclear generation, 28% from large hydroelectric power plants; the share of the wind energy is to be 12%, and solar energy 7% (Bokuchava & Semenov, 2022). Redistribution between energy sources can be achieved through changes in the cost of technologies used and in availability of necessary resources. For example, nuclear power generation can be replaced by renewables and biomass from waste; Russia has vast resources for this. The possibilities of increasing generation at large hydroelectric power plants are rather limited due to physical and technological, environmental, socio-economic conditions, so it is possible to replace the “falling” amounts of energy generation in this segment with other carbon-free sources.

It is possible that Russia and other countries will attain the goal set in the Paris Climate Agreement and the global temperature will not exceed 20C by 2050. Taking into account the growth of the world’s population, one can expect that at this level the increases in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere will be contained and climate change moderated — on condition that the country modernizes the main sectors: energy (electricity and heat generation), transport, metallurgy, construction, energy consumption in buildings and structures; these account for about 80% of CO2 emissions in the country. Model calculations have shown that keeping the global temperature below 20C may be attainable under various scenario assumptions: there is a fairly wide range of options for solving the problem of decarbonization of the Russian economy, and the choice of one or another option depends on the country’s strategy and political decisions. It is necessary to point out that such a significant reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions should not mean a deterioration in the population welfare or drop in Russia’s energy consumption (Snakin, 2022).

According to some scenarios, GDP per capita is expected to grow approximately 3.3 times between 2010 and 2050: the demographic situation, according to Russian researchers, will improve by 2050 and there will be an increase in final energy consumption by at least 25%. At the same time, the costs of transforming the economy towards decarbonization, according to our data, are not much higher than the costs associated with maintaining the current economic model and energy infrastructure. It should not be surprising because the need to ensure extraction, transportation and use of fossil fuels involves ever-increasing costs. According to the CEEF projections for the future until 2050, at the current rates of production and export of oil and gas Russia will not be able to ensure economic growth and self-sufficiency with only these energy sources; it will therefore be vital to change the energy generation model in Russia if the country is to maintain its potential for economic growth.

An important effect of the development of a low-carbon economy is the creation of new jobs. According to the International Institute for Systems Analysis, the growth in electricity generation using renewable energy sources leads to an increase in “direct” employment in construction, production of materials and components, management — up to 614 jobs per 100 MW, as well as an increase in “indirect” employment to 4666 jobs per 100 MW. Taking into account the results obtained in our study, by 2035 there will be an increase in energy production using renewable energy sources (RES) up to 95.7 TWh per year, and we can estimate additional “direct” employment in the field of RES, which will be more than 1.2 million jobs, and “indirect” employment — 6 — 8 million jobs (Bobylev & Porfiriev, 2018).

In the course of extensive research, assessments were made of the effects of implementing measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector, primarily from thermal power plants and boiler houses in large settlements. It has been shown that decreases in chemical air pollution will lower the risks to public health. Scenarios with GHG emissions reduced to the level of 20C are associated with deep decarbonization of energy generation and economy as a whole. Its large-scale side effects include decreases in environmental pollution, morbidity and mortality from the dangerous impact of technologies used for extraction, transportation and consumption of fossil fuels (primarily coal) and many others. The development and implementation of green technologies will not make Russia less competitive. On the contrary, it will strengthen the competitive positions of domestic business in the emerging international low-carbon economy, help it find and capture new markets and ensure the implementation of the UNFCCC and the UN Global Development Goals.

One of the promising green technologies is hybrid systems that can use both renewable and conventional energy sources, including uninterruptible power supplies that store energy when it is available and release it from batteries when needed. In the Republic of Altai, small-scale power generation is widely used in hard-to-reach and sparsely populated areas. Hybrid autonomous power systems using renewable energy sources are used in many settlements of Altai (Suronash, Yailyu, Balykcha, and others), where it is difficult to provide centralized power supply. One of the most notable examples of the use of autonomous power supply is the case of the city of Barnaul, where in 2007 a new house owner faced a dilemma: to connect it to a centralized power supply and pay a fairly high price (about 2 million roubles) or, following the advice of a friendly engineer, install an autonomous power supply, save more than 20% of the amount asked for the centralized one and be independent from electricity suppliers. The house owner chose the second, innovative option. He had the building improved — the walls made thicker, special window openings added — and the energy efficiency of the building significantly increased, which is especially important at winter temperatures below 400C. Solar panels were installed, with reasonable precautions against snow and pollution, a wind generator as an additional source of energy and a diesel generator as a backup. The main problem, as shown by operating experience, consists in energy storage. None of the batteries of domestic or foreign manufacturers retained the power declared in the technical passport for more than 1 year. The purchase of new and additional disks became one of the main items of the house-owner’s expenses.

In a low-carbon economy, the role of coal will obviously be drastically reduced through various regulations, including a ban on its combustion without CCS technologies. Russia’s coal reserves are enormous: at the current rate of production and consumption they will last for hundreds of years; its coal industry employs a huge number of enterprises, financial and investment companies and research institutes. This is a very socially intensive industry and the issues of industry survival in the new low-carbon economy are very sensitive. It is necessary to abandon the position of “not noticing” the challenges facing the coal industry in the transition to a new model of low-carbon development. There is a large arsenal of tools that include coal-chemical technologies, coal gasification, extraction of mine methane and methane from coal seams, integrated use of coal (isolation and utilization of all useful chemical elements), and others. At the same time, it is necessary to ensure the fulfillment of social and environmental requirements for the projects in the development of the coal industry in the new conditions. The alternative use of coal will help overcome the problem of divestment (withdrawal of investments) in the coal industry, which many countries have in common.

Not only international organizations (the World Bank, the EBRD, etc.) refuse to support coal projects, but also the largest institutional investors — pension funds, insurance companies and others — that manage long-term investment resources in the amount of several trillion US dollars. There is an urgent need to explore the application of carbon capture and utilization (CCS) technologies in Russia. These technologies are not yet well understood, although the oil industry has long used the method of injecting the gas mixture of carbon dioxide, methane and some other substances into oil wells to pressurize and produce oil. Depending on local conditions, geological structures or deep reservoirs for gas injection and many other factors, oil producing companies use various CCS technologies. Russia should take into account global and domestic experience (for example, in the oil and gas sector), prospects and plans for the use of CCS in Australia, USA, Canada, EU and other countries. We need to look into the possibility of implementing pilot projects and participating in joint international initiatives on CCS. Without the use of CCS technologies, it may not be possible to achieve the goal of limiting global temperature rise to no more than 20C.

The analysis of the results of the study of deep decarbonization of the economies of 16 largest countries allowed the author to assess the potential of and develop a set of measures for the implementation of export-oriented projects in the field of carbon-free energy. In a low-carbon economy, priority will be given to energy resources, materials, products and services produced with a minimal carbon footprint. Already now it is necessary to determine promising areas for the participation of Russian enterprises. The country has huge resources for producing green energy: tidal power plants and other renewable energy sources can produce carbon-free electricity that can be exported via modern (superconducting) power lines or as hydrogen, liquid biofuels or next generation fuels for cars and aviation. Development of energy storage technologies, production of nanotubes used in basic materials (plastic, cement, rubber, aluminum) is to radically improve their strength and other properties, such as increasing batteries service life without changing power.

Highly science-intensive energy products can become alternative to the export of traditional energy resources and energy-intensive products, such as metals or chemical products. It is advisable to enter into international agreements to promote such projects and products in key partner countries, including China, India, Brazil and facilitate the introduction of new standards for the carbon intensity of products and production processes among the Russian enterprises. Along with the planned activities to develop a system for monitoring and reporting on GHG emissions and carbon regulation measures, this will contribute to the involvement of businesses in the reduction of GHG emissions, optimization of carbon performance indicators, and reduction of risks arising from tightening regulatory mechanisms at the international level, e.g. related to products delivery to the EU or USA.