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Research Article
A Multifaceted Analysis of Agricultural and Arable Land Use, Electricity Access, Economic Growth, and Demographic Trends Across Regions: Implications for Sustainable Development
expand article infoTryson Yangailo‡
‡ Unaffiliated, Lusaka, Zambia

Corresponding author: Tryson Yangailo ( ytryson@yahoo.com )

Academic editor: Alina Steblyanskaya
© 2025 Tryson Yangailo.
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Citation: Yangailo T (2025) A Multifaceted Analysis of Agricultural and Arable Land Use, Electricity Access, Economic Growth, and Demographic Trends Across Regions: Implications for Sustainable Development. In: Kuchinskaya T, Limei S, Steblyanskya A (Eds). Trans-borderness in a New Era: Integration, Identities and Cooperation for Sustainable Development. BRICS Journal of Economics 6(3): 5-30. https://doi.org/10.3897/brics-econ.6.e146851
Open Access

Abstract

This study examines the links between agricultural and arable land use, access to electricity, economic growth, and demographic trends in several global regions, including sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Central Europe and the Baltic States, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa. The study hypothesizes that access to electricity moderates the relationship between agricultural land use, economic growth, and demographic trends, with regional disparities driven by differences in initial conditions such as infrastructure development and population dynamics. Using data from 2000 to 2022 from the World Bank database and Jamovi software, the analysis employs descriptive statistics, correlation, regression, moderation analysis, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) to explore regional disparities and identify challenges and opportunities for sustainable development. The results reveal significant regional disparities in electricity access, with regions such as Eastern and Southern Africa (31.8%) and sub-Saharan Africa (36.9%) facing significant electrification challenges compared to the near-universal access in Europe and Central Asia. Agricultural land use is a key determinant of economic stability, with South Asia having the highest percentage of agricultural land (56.7%), a pattern consistent with its agrarian economy. In contrast, the Middle East and North Africa faces significant constraints due to limited arable land (4.75%) and environmental challenges. The study also finds that regions such as Central Europe and the Baltics and East Asia and the Pacific have advanced agricultural practices and higher rates of urbanization, with less reliance on agriculture for economic stability. In addition, population growth shows a strong negative correlation with access to electricity (r = -0.834, p < 0.001), reflecting the demographic transition in developed countries where improvements in infrastructure coincide with lower fertility rates. Moderation analysis shows that in regions with low electricity access, such as sub-Saharan Africa, rapid population growth negatively affects GDP growth, but this effect is moderated by improvements in electricity access. Based on these findings, the study offers targeted recommendations for improving infrastructure, promoting sustainable agriculture, investing in human capital, and advancing inclusive urbanization strategies. These findings provide actionable guidance for policymakers seeking to address infrastructure deficits, reduce socioeconomic disparities, and overcome environmental constraints to achieve sustainable global development.

Keywords

Agricultural Land Use, Electricity Access, Economic Growth, Demographic Trends, Regional Disparities.

JEL: O1, Q15, Q42, J11, R58.

Introduction

Understanding the complex relationship between land use, access to electricity, economic growth and population dynamics is one of the key factors in promoting sustainable development and addressing global inequalities. While sustainable development is influenced by a wide range of economic, social, and environmental factors, these particular elements play a critical role in shaping resource distribution, infrastructure development, and overall societal well-being. Analyzing how land use patterns affect energy access, how electricity drives economic opportunity, and how population dynamics influence resource demand can provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to promote inclusive and sustainable growth. This study introduces a central hypothesis: access to electricity moderates the relationship between agricultural land use, economic growth, and demographic trends, with regional disparities driven by differences in initial conditions such as infrastructure development and population dynamics. However, sustainable development is influenced by many other factors that should also be recognized as key determinants of long-term progress. Land use patterns play an important role in shaping economic activities. Efficient land management practices can increase productivity and support economic growth, while inefficient practices can lead to resource depletion, environmental degradation and socio-economic challenges. Access to electricity, essential for powering industry and raising living standards, also plays a critical role in economic development, especially in regions where infrastructure is lacking. Population dynamics, meanwhile, are central to both economic activity and resource use. While population growth can drive economic activity by increasing labor supply and consumer demand, rapid growth can strain resources, change land use patterns through urbanization or deforestation, and put pressure on infrastructure and public services.

Global inequalities in these areas are stark. For example, regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia face significant electricity access challenges, which limit economic opportunities and overall development (Zhang et al., 2019). These regions experience slower economic growth due to inadequate energy access, which hinders industrialization and innovation. On the other hand, developed regions, such as the US and Europe, often have more efficient land use and higher economic growth, but struggle with issues such as urban sprawl and environmental degradation (Mahtta et al., 2022). Land use inefficiencies, such as those in Canada, Australia, and Argentina, driven by the global flow of arable land through supply chains, also reflect global disparities in economic productivity and resource distribution (Wu et al., 2018). These imbalances are exacerbated by the interplay of population growth, energy access, and economic development (Khan et al., 2021). For example, rapid urbanization, particularly in China and Southeast Asia, is linked to economic policies and rural-urban migration, often resulting in loss of agricultural land and increased pressure on infrastructure (Yeh & Li, 1999; Xie et al., 2005).

This study aims to test the hypothesis that access to electricity moderates the relationship between agricultural land use, economic growth, and demographic trends, controlling for regional differences in initial conditions. By analyzing these linkages, the study provides valuable insights for policymakers seeking to balance economic growth with environmental sustainability, social equity, and resource management. The findings of this study are important for guiding policymakers in designing targeted interventions to address disparities in underdeveloped or rapidly growing regions. For example, research by Maja and Ayano (2021) highlights the detrimental effects of rapid population growth on natural resources and climate resilience, and calls for integrated solutions for sustainable development; the paper on agricultural sustainability in India by Jatav and Naik (2023) points to the need for strategies that address both social and environmental factors to ensure long-term food security and economic stability. This study builds on previous work by integrating approaches such as the telecoupling framework (Friis et al., 2016; Busck-Lumholt et al., 2022), which provides a holistic view of global land system dynamics by considering resource flows and external influences. This multidisciplinary approach aims to inform strategies that promote sustainable development through more efficient land use, equitable access to energy, and balanced population growth.

Literature Review

The complex relationship between land use, electricity access, economic growth and population dynamics has been widely explored in the literature, often from different disciplinary perspectives. While existing studies have examined these factors separately, there is a critical need for a more integrated approach that highlights their interconnectedness. This study builds on this gap by proposing a central hypothesis that access to electricity moderates the relationship between agricultural land use, economic growth, and demographic trends, with regional disparities driven by differences in initial conditions. Efficient land use is critical for agricultural productivity and urban planning, which impacts economic development (Wu et al., 2018). From a neoclassical and institutional perspective, land use efficiency contributes to capital formation and long-term economic stability, consistent with theories that emphasize resource optimization in economic growth (Solow, 1956; North, 1990). Sustainable land management practices can mitigate climate change, conserve biodiversity, and support both local and global economic activities. However, global imbalances persist, with regions such as sub-Saharan Africa heavily dependent on subsistence agriculture, limiting industrialization and economic diversification (Uisso & Tanrıvermiş, 2021). Keynesian perspectives emphasizes the role of government intervention in land management and infrastructure development to address these disparities, stressing the need for public investment in agrarian economies (Keynes, 1937).

Access to electricity is a cornerstone of economic development, allowing industries to thrive and improving living standards. However, more than 770 million people remain without electricity in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia (Zhang et al., 2019), contributing to economic stagnation and perpetuating poverty. Access to electricity, particularly in rural areas, has been linked to increased productivity and economic diversification, a relationship that is well established in both neoclassical and Keynesian economic thought. The Solow-Swan growth model, for example, emphasizes capital accumulation and technological progress - both of which are supported by reliable energy infrastructure (Solow, 1956; Swan, 1956). The complementary role of renewable energy in increasing agricultural productivity and promoting economic growth has been well documented (Ben Jebli & Ben Youssef, 2017). Moreover, urban population growth has been shown to drive urban land expansion (ULE), although the influence of GDP growth has become more important in recent years (Mahtta et al., 2022). Institutional theories emphasize the importance of good governance in shaping land and energy policies and their impact on economic stability (Acemoglu et al., 2004). This highlights the importance of good governance in enabling effective economic growth and influencing ULE.

Economic growth itself drives investment in infrastructure and energy access, but inequalities in resource allocation often hinder development in low-income regions. Raihan and Tuspekova (2022) highlight the link between energy access and long-term economic growth, suggesting that energy security is essential for poverty reduction and sustainable development. From a Keynesian perspective, public investment in infrastructure - such as electrification projects - stimulates demand and drives economic expansion. Meanwhile, neoclassical models suggest that secure access to energy promotes private sector growth and labor productivity (Barro, 1991). Studies of China’s farmland protection policies and rural-urban migration further illustrate the tensions between economic growth, land use and environmental protection (Xie et al., 2005; Yeh & Li, 1999). These policies struggle to balance growth objectives with the need to preserve agricultural land and ensure food security.

Population dynamics play an important role in these interdependencies. Unat (2020) critiques Malthus’s theory of population, arguing that while his concerns about resource limits were valid in his time, advances in technology and human capital development have significantly altered the trajectory of food production and population growth. Population should be considered not only as a quantitative factor, but also in its qualitative dimensions. Rapid population growth, particularly in low-income countries, exacerbates resource scarcity, alters land use patterns, and puts pressure on energy infrastructure (Schneider et al., 2011). Institutional economists argue that population dynamics interact with governance structures and policy interventions, influencing economic resilience and sustainability (Williamson, 2000).

In contrast, aging populations in developed countries require different policy responses, such as improving technological innovation and labor productivity to sustain economic growth (Hayami & Ruttan, 2020).

Gaps in Literature

While numerous studies have examined the individual relationships between land use, electricity access, economic growth, and population dynamics, few have integrated these factors to understand their combined impact across regions. This study aims to fill these gaps by proposing a central hypothesis and adopting a multidisciplinary approach that considers how regional differences shape development outcomes. By building on studies such as Lambin et al. (2000) and Wang et al. (2019) that emphasize decision-making and the socioeconomic impacts of land use transitions, this study aims to inform sustainable development strategies that consider both local needs and global linkages. In addition, integrating Malthusian theory with modern insights on human capital and technological advances provides a more nuanced perspective on population dynamics and their implications for land use and resource management. This approach will help to develop more accurate models for understanding the complex relationship between population growth, land use, and economic development.

Methodology

The methodology of this study is designed to comprehensively analyze the relationships between agricultural and arable land use, access to electricity, economic growth, and demographic trends across a wide range of regions, ensuring the inclusion of diverse geographic, economic, and cultural contexts. The study tests the central hypothesis that access to electricity moderates the relationship between agricultural land use, economic growth, and demographic trends, with regional differences driven by differences in initial conditions. The macro-regions selected for analysis were chosen on the basis of their representation of diverse economic, demographic, and infrastructural conditions. These regions are commonly used in global development studies because of their distinct characteristics and the availability of comparable data from the World Bank and other international databases. To account for different starting conditions, the macro-regions were selected based on geographic proximity, level of economic development, and common development challenges. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics between these factors, despite initial differences between regions. The study covers sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Europe and Central Asia, Central Europe and the Baltic States, the Middle East and North Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, North America, and other global regions where relevant data are available. The data used span the years 2000 to 2022, providing a robust temporal framework for analyzing regional dynamics and trends over the past two decades.

Data Sources

This study used secondary data from reputable global databases to ensure the accuracy and credibility of the analysis. The primary data source was the World Bank Development Indicators, which provides standardized data on electricity access, GDP growth, population growth, agricultural land, and arable land. The key variables examined include: agricultural land, arable land, electricity access, GDP growth and population growth.

Statistical Methods

To explore the complex relationships between the variables, the study employed a variety of statistical methods to ensure robust analysis that could capture both global and regional nuances. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize and compare key variables, such as access to electricity, agricultural land use, and GDP growth across regions. Given the regional differences in baseline conditions, including access to electricity and demographic trends, the descriptive analysis highlights these differences to contextualize the relationships between variables. Correlational analysis helped identify relationships between variables, providing insight into their interrelationships. Multiple linear regression models were developed to examine predictors of economic growth. Moderation analysis was used to examine the interaction between the variables and its effect on outcomes. Finally, analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to compare the means of key variables across regions and to identify statistically significant differences. This combination of techniques provided a comprehensive understanding of the factors shaping regional development dynamics.

Results

Descriptive Analysis

Agricultural and Arable Land Use

Table 1 shows that regions differ significantly in the percentage of land used for agriculture and cropland. South Asia stands out with the highest proportion of agricultural land (mean: 56.7%), reflecting its reliance on agricultural practices. On the other hand, Europe and Central Asia have the lowest agricultural land use (mean: 29.4%), reflecting their urbanized and industrialized economies. Arable land use follows a similar trend, with South Asia leading the way with 43.4%, while the Middle East and North Africa lags behind with only 4.75%. The disparity in arable land use suggests differences in land productivity and climatic suitability across regions.

Table 1.
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Regional Descriptive Statistics of Land Use, Electricity Access, Economic Growth, and Demographic Trends

Table 1. Continued
Region Agricultural land (% of land area) Arable land (% of land area) Access to electricity (% of population) GDP growth (annual %) Population growth (annual %)
Region Agricultural land (% of land area) Arable land (% of land area) Access to electricity (% of population) GDP growth (annual %) Population growth (annual %)
Mean Africa Eastern and Southern 44.4 7.34 31.8 3.53 2.71
Africa Western and Central 39.3 11.2 44.5 4.74 2.73
Central Europe and the Baltics 47.9 33.7 99.0 3.34 -0.364
East Asia & Pacific 48.1 8.96 95.7 4.83 0.692
Europe & Central Asia 29.4 12.5 99.6 1.89 0.297
Latin America & Caribbean 33.2 7.15 95.7 2.35 1.06
Middle East & North Africa 33.6 4.75 95.2 3.56 2.04
South Asia 56.7 43.4 78.3 5.76 1.46
Sub-Saharan Africa 42.3 8.90 36.9 4.04 2.72
Median Africa Eastern and Southern 43.6 7.50 28.9 3.55 2.72
Africa Western and Central 39.1 11.1 44.2 5.17 2.82
Central Europe and the Baltics 47.2 33.2 99.1 3.96 -0.271
East Asia & Pacific 48.0 8.96 96.0 4.95 0.747
Europe & Central Asia 29.3 12.4 99.7 2.12 0.291
Latin America & Caribbean 33.3 7.30 96.2 2.57 1.08
Middle East & North Africa 33.4 4.76 95.7 3.93 2.18
South Asia 56.7 43.2 78.0 6.50 1.49
Sub-Saharan Africa 41.7 9.02 35.9 4.18 2.73
Standard deviation Africa Eastern and Southern 1.82 0.861 9.40 2.05 0.0518
Africa Western and Central 1.41 0.847 6.34 2.40 0.170
Central Europe and the Baltics 1.93 1.27 0.722 2.68 0.263
East Asia & Pacific 1.35 0.138 1.93 1.65 0.188
Europe & Central Asia 0.277 0.167 0.333 2.53 0.135
Latin America & Caribbean 0.489 0.391 2.18 3.02 0.238
Middle East & North Africa 0.599 0.0908 1.72 2.39 0.313
South Asia 0.160 0.481 13.6 2.71 0.310
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.75 0.767 8.10 1.97 0.0763

Access to Electricity

Access to electricity varies dramatically by region. Europe and Central Asia (mean: 99.6%) and Central Europe and the Baltics (mean: 99%) enjoy near-universal access, reflecting well-developed infrastructure. In contrast, Eastern and Southern Africa (mean: 31.8%) and sub-Saharan Africa (mean: 36.9%) face significant electrification challenges, reflecting infrastructure gaps. High standard deviations in South Asia (13.6%) and sub-Saharan Africa (8.10%) further underscore the disparities within these regions, suggesting pockets of progress alongside underserved areas.

GDP Growth

South Asia has the highest average GDP growth (mean: 5.76%), reflecting rapid economic expansion driven by industrialization and market reforms. Western and Central Africa (mean: 4.74%) and East Asia and the Pacific (average: 4.83%) also show robust growth. Conversely, Europe and Central Asia (mean: 1.89%) shows the slowest growth, characteristic of mature economies. Notable variability in GDP growth, as seen in Western and Central Africa (standard deviation: 2.4%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (3.02%), reflects economic volatility caused by fluctuating global commodity prices and, in some cases, political instability.

Population Growth

Regions with the fastest growing populations include Western and Central Africa (mean: 2.73%) and sub-Saharan Africa (mean: 2.72%), reflecting trends of high fertility rates and improved health care. In contrast, Central Europe and the Baltics (mean: -0.364%) has negative population growth, reflecting demographic challenges such as population aging and emigration. This divergence highlights the need for tailored policies to address population dynamics, such as infrastructure for fast-growing regions and support for aging societies.

Variability and Extremes

Some regions show stability, while others show significant variability in the indicators measured. For example, Europe and Central Asia and East Asia and the Pacific report low standard deviations for most variables, indicating consistent performance. In contrast, regions such as South Asia (standard deviation for access to electricity: 13.6%) and sub-Saharan Africa (standard deviation for access to electricity: 8.10%) show significant internal variation. Extremes in GDP growth, such as Europe and Central Asia (-5.41%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (-6.59%), highlight economic downturns during certain periods, while sub-Saharan Africa’s lowest recorded electricity access (25.7%) underscores critical infrastructure gaps.

Correlation Analysis

Agricultural Land and Other Variables

According to Table 2, agricultural land shows a strong positive correlation with cropland (r=0.704, p<.001), indicating that regions with extensive agricultural land tend to devote a significant portion of it to cultivation. This relationship highlights the role of cropland in agricultural productivity. However, agricultural land is weakly and negatively correlated with access to electricity (r=-0.165, p=0.018), suggesting that rural areas dominated by agriculture may face infrastructure constraints. The moderate positive correlation between agricultural land and GDP growth (r=0.325, p<.001) highlights the importance of agriculture for economic performance in certain regions. Interestingly, no significant relationship was observed between agricultural land and population growth (r=-0.028, p=0.691), suggesting that agricultural land does not directly influence demographic trends.

Table 2.
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Correlation Matrix of Land Use, Electricity Access, Economic Growth, and Population Dynamics

Agricultural land (% of land area) Arable land (% of land area) Access to electricity (% of population) GDP growth (annual %) Population growth (annual %)
Agricultural land (% of land area) Pearson’s r —
df —
p-value —
Arable land (% of land area) Pearson’s r 0.704 *** —
df 205 —
p-value < .001 —
Access to electricity (% of population) Pearson’s r -0.165 * 0.210 ** —
df 205 205 —
p-value 0.018 0.002 —
GDP growth (annual %) Pearson’s r 0.325 *** 0.179 * -0.189 ** —
df 205 205 205 —
p-value < .001 0.010 0.006 —
Population growth (annual %) Pearson’s r -0.028 -0.407 *** -0.834 *** 0.165 * —
df 205 205 205 205 —
p-value 0.691 < .001 < .001 0.017 —

Note. * p < .05, ** p < .01, *** p < .001

Arable Land and Other Variables

Arable land has a weak positive correlation with access to electricity (r=0.210, p=0.002), possibly reflecting improved infrastructure in regions with intensive agricultural practices. Similarly, the weak positive correlation with GDP growth (r=0.179, p=0.010) suggests that productive arable land contributes to economic development, albeit to a limited extent. Conversely, a significant negative correlation between arable land and population growth (r=-0.407, p<.001) indicates that areas with a higher percentage of arable land often experience slower population growth. This trend could be attributed to urbanization and population movement away from rural, agriculture-dependent regions.

Access to Electricity and Other Variables

Access to electricity is weakly and negatively correlated with GDP growth (r=-0.189, p=0.006), suggesting that regions with more developed infrastructure and higher access to electricity often experience slower GDP growth, likely reflecting their status as more mature economies. Of particular note is the strong negative correlation between electricity access and population growth (r=-0.834, p<.001). This relationship is consistent with demographic transitions in developed regions, where improved infrastructure and living standards are typically associated with declining population growth rates.

GDP Growth and Population Growth

The relationship between GDP growth and population growth is weakly positive (r=0.165, p=0.017), suggesting that economic expansion may slightly contribute to higher population growth. This relationship may reflect regions where economic opportunities support larger populations or attract migration. However, the strength of this relationship is limited, suggesting that other factors play a more significant role in influencing population growth.

Regression Analysis

The regression model presented in Table 3 explains 13.7% of the variation in GDP growth, as indicated by R2=0.137. After adjusting for the number of predictors, the adjusted R2 is slightly lower at 0.120. This suggests that while the model has some explanatory power, it leaves a significant amount of variability unexplained. The model is statistically significant overall (F (4,202) =8.05, p<0.001), confirming that the included predictors collectively contribute to explaining differences in GDP growth. However, the modest R2 highlights the potential influence of additional unexamined variables on GDP growth.

Table 3.
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Model Fit Measures

Overall Model Test
Model R R² Adjusted R² F df1 df2 p
1 0.371 0.137 0.120 8.05 4 202 < .001

The coefficients presented in Table 4 provide detailed insights into the direction and magnitude of the impact of each predictor on GDP growth. The intercept (B=-1.459, p=0.440) is not statistically significant, indicating that GDP growth is not inherently negative when all predictors are zero. Agricultural land (% of land area) is a significant positive predictor (B=0.096, p=0.004), indicating that an increase in agricultural land is strongly correlated with higher economic growth. In contrast, arable land (% of land area) has no significant effect on GDP growth (B=0.0098, p=0.663). Similarly, access to electricity (% of population) has a minimal impact (B=0.0038, p=0.748), further supporting its lack of significant direct effect on economic growth in this model. Population growth (annual %) shows a moderate positive effect (B=0.540, p=0.085), but its lack of statistical significance indicates that the relationship is not strong enough to draw definitive conclusions.

Table 4.
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Model Coefficients - GDP growth (annual %)

Predictor Estimate SE t p Stand. Estimate
Intercept -1.45930 1.8857 -0.774 0.440
Agricultural land (% of land area) 0.09617 0.0326 2.954 0.004 0.3046
Arable land (% of land area) 0.00978 0.0224 0.436 0.663 0.0478
Access to electricity (% of population) 0.00379 0.0118 0.322 0.748 0.0405
Population growth (annual %) 0.53990 0.3122 1.729 0.085 0.2268
Table 5.
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Moderation Estimates

Estimate SE Z p
Population growth (annual %) -1.4723 0.16055 -9.17 < .001
Access to electricity (% of population) -0.0960 0.00624 -15.37 < .001
Population growth (annual %) * Access to electricity (% of population) 0.0612 0.00792 7.73 < .001

Moderation Analysis

The moderation analysis examines how the relationship between population growth and GDP growth is affected by the level of access to electricity. The results show three main findings:

Population growth (annual %): The main effect of population growth on GDP growth is negative (estimate=-1.4723), with a large Z-value of -9.17 and a p-value of less than 0.001. This indicates a strong, statistically significant negative relationship between population growth and GDP growth, suggesting that higher population growth may be associated with lower economic growth under typical conditions.

Access to electricity (% of population): The effect of access to electricity on GDP growth is also negative (estimate=-0.0960) and highly significant (Z=-15.37, p<0.001). This suggests that, on average, greater access to electricity is correlated with lower GDP growth in this analysis, although this result may warrant further investigation given the broader context or indirect pathways through which access to electricity affects economic performance.

Interaction between population growth and access to electricity: The interaction term (estimate=0.0612) is positive and highly significant (Z=7.73,p<0.001), indicating that the negative effect of population growth on GDP growth becomes weaker (or even positive) as access to electricity increases. This suggests that in regions with higher access to electricity, the negative impact of population growth on GDP growth is mitigated or less pronounced.

ANOVA

The one-way ANOVA presented in Table 6 tests the differences between regions for several indicators, including GDP growth, access to electricity, population growth, arable land, and agricultural land. The Welch’s and Fisher’s F-tests indicate that there are significant differences between the regions for all variables:

Table 6.
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One-Way ANOVA

F df1 df2 p
GDP growth (annual %) Welch’s 5.17 8 82.3 < .001
Fisher’s 5.89 8 198 < .001
Access to electricity (% of population) Welch’s 539.92 8 77.1 < .001
Fisher’s 443.42 8 198 < .001
Population growth (annual %) Welch’s 1445.17 8 79.9 < .001
Fisher’s 663.49 8 198 < .001
Arable land (% of land area) Welch’s 21415.28 8 79.6 < .001
Fisher’s 9333.11 8 198 < .001
Agricultural land (% of land area) Welch’s 24416.05 8 78.6 < .001
Fisher’s 1076.16 8 198 < .001

GDP growth (annual %): Both Welch’s (F=5.17, p<0.001) and Fisher’s (F=5.89, p<0.001) tests indicate significant regional differences in GDP growth, suggesting that economic growth patterns differ significantly across regions.

Access to electricity (% of population): Welch’s (F=539.92, p<0.001) and Fisher’s (F=443.42, p<0.001) tests show highly significant differences in access to electricity. This indicates significant regional differences in access to electricity, reflecting differences in infrastructure and development.

Population growth (annual %): Significant regional differences in population growth are confirmed by both Welch’s (F=1445.17, p<0.001) and Fisher’s (F=663.49, p<0.001) tests. This suggests that population growth rates differ significantly across regions, likely due to factors such as fertility rates, migration patterns, and socio-economic conditions.

Arable land (% of land area): Both Welch’s (F=21415.28, p<0.001) and Fisher’s (F=9333.11, p<0.001) tests indicate highly significant differences in the proportion of arable land, which varies by region due to differences in land use, geography, and agricultural practices.

Agricultural Land (% of Land Area): Differences in agricultural land are similarly significant, with Welch’s (F=24416.05, p<0.001) and Fisher’s (F=1076.16, p<0.001) tests indicating notable regional differences in the amount of land devoted to agriculture.

Discussion

This study provides a comprehensive examination of the interrelationships between land use, electricity access, economic growth, and demographic trends in different regions of the world. The results reveal significant regional differences and provide valuable insights into the complex dynamics between these variables. The findings support the central hypothesis that access to electricity moderates the relationship between agricultural land use, economic growth, and demographic trends, with regional disparities driven by differences in initial conditions. This analysis contributes to the growing body of literature on sustainable development by highlighting key regional trends and offering targeted policy recommendations aimed at promoting equitable and inclusive growth.

Agricultural and Arable Land Use

The descriptive analysis reveals significant regional differences in agricultural and cropland use, highlighting the influence of geography, economic structure and regional levels of development on land use patterns. For example, South Asia’s high agricultural land use (56.7%) is driven by the region’s predominantly agrarian economies, where agriculture remains a critical sector for employment and food security. This finding is consistent with previous research highlighting the role of agricultural land use in developing economies (Apergis & Ozturk, 2015). In contrast, Europe and Central Asia (29.4%) and Central Europe and the Baltics (47.9%) have lower agricultural land use, reflecting the advanced industrialization and urbanization in the region, which has reduced the share of land devoted to agriculture.

The minimal use of arable land in the Middle East and North Africa (4.75 percent) illustrates how regional climatic constraints, such as arid and semi-arid environments, shape land use practices. The region faces significant challenges related to water scarcity and desertification, which limit the availability of arable land. These regional differences underscore the need for context-specific agricultural policies that take into account environmental factors, economic realities and the different levels of development in the regions.

Correlation analysis supports these observations, showing a strong relationship between agricultural land and cropland (r = 0.704, p < 0.001). However, the weak negative correlation between agricultural land and access to electricity (r = -0.165, p = 0.018) suggests that rural agricultural economies face significant infrastructure challenges. This is particularly evident in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where rural electrification rates remain critically low despite high levels of agricultural activity. This highlights the importance of addressing infrastructure deficits in these regions to promote rural development and increase agricultural productivity.

Electricity Access

The differences in access to electricity between regions are striking; they reflect significant differences in infrastructure. Regions such as Europe and Central Asia and Central Europe and the Baltic States have almost universal access to electricity, reflecting their well-developed energy infrastructure and high levels of economic development. In contrast, regions such as Eastern and Southern Africa (31.8%) and sub-Saharan Africa (36.9%) continue to face significant electrification challenges. These regions are characterized by underdeveloped energy infrastructure, limited investment in renewable energy, and significant urban-rural disparities in access to electricity.

Moreover, the high standard deviations in regions such as South Asia (13.6%) and sub-Saharan Africa (8.10%) underscore the uneven distribution of electricity within these regions. In South Asia, urban centers have made significant progress in electrification, while rural areas, particularly in less developed parts of the region, continue to lag behind. These disparities highlight the need for targeted interventions to bridge the urban-rural divide in electricity access.

Correlation analysis shows a weak negative correlation between access to electricity and GDP growth (r = -0.189, p = 0.006), suggesting that more developed regions with near-universal access to electricity experience slower economic growth. This is consistent with the characteristics of mature economies, where high levels of infrastructure development are associated with stabilized growth rates. Moreover, the strong negative correlation between electricity access and population growth (r = -0.834, p < 0.001) is consistent with demographic transitions in developed regions, where improvements in infrastructure are associated with lower fertility rates and stabilized population growth (Lee, 2003). These results highlight the critical role of electricity infrastructure in driving both economic development and demographic change.

Economic Growth and Population Growth

There is considerable variation in patterns of economic growth across regions, with South Asia (5.76%) and East Asia and the Pacific (4.83%) showing high GDP growth indicative of rapid industrialisation and market expansion. These regions benefit from dynamic industries, favourable demographics and increasing integration with global markets. In contrast, Europe and Central Asia experienced the slowest growth (1.89%), reflecting the characteristics of mature economies that have reached their growth potential. This region is facing challenges such as ageing populations, low productivity growth, and economic stagnation in some areas.

Interestingly, the weak positive correlation between GDP growth and population growth (r = 0.165, p = 0.017) suggests that while economic expansion may encourage larger populations, other factors, such as fertility rates and access to healthcare, are likely to play a more important role in influencing demographic trends. For example, in sub-Saharan Africa, high population growth rates are driven by socio-cultural factors and improved healthcare rather than economic performance alone.

Moderation Analysis

The moderation analysis provides valuable insights into the dynamics between population growth, electricity access and GDP growth. The analysis shows that population growth negatively affects GDP growth in regions with low access to electricity. This is particularly evident in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where rapid population growth coupled with low electrification rates exacerbates economic challenges. However, this negative impact is mitigated in regions with better access to electricity. The interaction term (r = 0.0612, p < 0.001) suggests that improving electricity infrastructure can mitigate the negative effects of rapid population growth, making it a critical component of sustainable development in fast-growing regions. For example, regions such as East Asia and the Pacific have been able to sustain high economic growth despite population pressures by investing heavily in energy infrastructure.

ANOVA Analysis

One-way ANOVA tests confirm significant differences across regions for all variables considered, highlighting the regional disparities that characterize global development. These differences are driven by different levels of economic development, infrastructure, and demographic structures across regions. For example, regions with high population growth rates, such as sub-Saharan Africa and West and Central Africa, require policies that prioritize health care, education, and infrastructure development to manage demographic transitions and ensure sustainable economic growth. In contrast, regions such as Europe and Central Asia need policies that address population ageing and economic stagnation.

Policy Implications and Recommendations

The results of this study highlight the complex interactions between land use, electricity access, economic growth, and demographic trends in different regions. These interdependencies underscore the need for region-specific, integrated policies that address infrastructure gaps, environmental constraints, and socioeconomic disparities, while taking into account the unique starting conditions and demographic characteristics of each region.

Enhancing Electricity Infrastructure

Policy Implications: Access to electricity is a critical enabler of economic growth, demographic stabilization, and improved quality of life. Regions with limited electrification, in particular sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, which started the analysis period (2000-2022) with significantly lower access rates than regions such as Europe and Central Asia, are experiencing slower economic development and increased population pressure due to inadequate infrastructure.

Recommendations:

  • Invest in distributed and renewable energy solutions, such as solar microgrids and wind power, to rapidly expand electricity access in rural and underserved areas, particularly in regions with low initial access rates.
  • Prioritize public-private partnerships to leverage financing and expertise for large-scale energy infrastructure projects, with a focus on regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia where electrification challenges are greatest.
  • Implement policies to subsidize electricity for low-income households to ensure equitable access while promoting economic inclusion, especially in regions with high poverty rates and rapid population growth.

Sustainable Agricultural Development

Policy Implications: Agricultural land use plays a critical role in sustaining economies in agrarian regions such as South Asia, which has the highest proportion of agricultural land (56.7%) but is constrained by environmental challenges and infrastructure deficits. In contrast, regions such as the Middle East and North Africa face additional pressures due to limited arable land (4.75%) and climatic constraints.

Recommendations:

  • Promote sustainable agricultural practices, including crop diversification, precision agriculture and climate-smart farming techniques, to increase productivity while conserving environmental resources, particularly in regions with high agricultural dependence.
  • Develop irrigation and water conservation infrastructure to support agricultural regions facing water scarcity, such as the Middle East and North Africa.
  • Provide financial and technical support to smallholder farmers to enable access to modern agricultural tools, fertilizers and training programs, with a focus on regions where agriculture is a major economic driver.

Investing in Human Capital

Policy Implications: Rapid population growth in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where population growth averages 2.72% per year, requires investments in health and education to manage demographic transitions and support long-term economic growth. In contrast, regions such as Central Europe and the Baltics face labor shortages due to ageing populations and negative population growth (-0.364%), requiring different policy approaches.

Recommendations:

  • Expand access to quality education, with a focus on secondary education and vocational training, to equip the workforce with skills aligned with modern economic needs, particularly in high-growth regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
  • Strengthening health systems to address high fertility rates and improve maternal and child health, thereby contributing to demographic stabilization in regions with rapid population growth.
  • Implementing social programs to empower women, including access to family planning services and educational opportunities, which have been shown to reduce fertility rates and increase economic participation, particularly in regions with high population growth.

Urbanization and Industrialization

Policy Implications: Urbanized and industrialized regions such as Europe and Central Asia, which have reached economic maturity, require strategies that sustain growth through innovation and technological advancement rather than expansion. In contrast, regions experiencing rapid urbanization, such as East Asia and the Pacific, must balance growth with environmental sustainability.

Recommendations:

  • Promote research and development in emerging technologies, including clean energy, artificial intelligence, and advanced manufacturing, to enhance economic competitiveness, particularly in mature economies such as Europe and Central Asia.
  • Support policies that promote sustainable urban planning, including investments in green infrastructure, public transport, and energy-efficient buildings, with a focus on rapidly urbanizing regions such as East Asia and the Pacific.
  • Leverage existing infrastructure to promote inclusive growth and ensure that marginalized communities benefit from urban development initiatives, particularly in regions with high rates of urbanization.

Addressing Regional Disparities

Policy implications: Significant regional disparities highlight the need for tailored strategies that address unique challenges and capitalize on local strengths, while taking into account differences in baseline conditions such as access to electricity and demographic trends.

Recommendations:

  • Facilitate regional cooperation and knowledge sharing to address transboundary challenges such as water resource management and energy trade, particularly in regions with shared resources such as the Middle East and North Africa.
  • Implement targeted fiscal policies, including tax incentives and grants, to stimulate development in lagging regions, with a focus on areas with low initial infrastructure and high population growth.
  • Engage local communities in policy-making processes to ensure that policies are tailored to their specific needs and priorities, particularly in regions with significant intra-regional disparities.

Mitigating the Negative Effects of Rapid Population Growth

Policy Implications: Population growth places varying degrees of pressure on economic systems, especially in regions with limited resources and infrastructure. The interaction between population growth and access to electricity is critical for sustainable development.

Recommendations:

  • Integrate population management strategies into broader development plans, focusing on education, health care and job creation, particularly in high-growth regions such as sub-Saharan Africa.
  • Expand electricity infrastructure in high-growth regions to mitigate the adverse effects of population growth on economic systems, as highlighted by the Moderation Analysis.
  • Monitor and assess demographic trends to anticipate future challenges and proactively design policies, particularly in regions with aging populations or labor shortages, such as Central Europe and the Baltics.

Conclusion

The interrelated challenges of agricultural and arable land use, access to electricity, economic growth, and demographic trends underscore the need for holistic, region-specific policies that promote sustainable development. This study has shown how these factors collectively influence socioeconomic outcomes in different regions, illustrating that a one-size-fits-all approach to development is insufficient. Instead, targeted strategies must address unique regional needs while fostering global cooperation to address common challenges.

Table 7.
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A Summary of the Study’s Findings, Policy Implications, and Recommendations

Table 7. Continued
Region Metrics Findings Policy Implications Recommendations
Region Metrics Findings Policy Implications Recommendations
Africa Eastern and Southern Electricity access, agricultural land, population growth Low electrification rates (31.8%), high reliance on agriculture (44.4% agricultural land), and rapid population growth (2.71%). Rural areas face significant infrastructure gaps, and agricultural economies are constrained by environmental challenges. Limited infrastructure impedes economic growth, rural development, and demographic stabilization. These issues exacerbate poverty and inequality, particularly in regions with low initial electricity access. Invest in decentralized renewable energy solutions, such as solar microgrids and wind power, especially in rural and underserved areas. Promote sustainable farming practices, including crop diversification, precision agriculture, and water conservation methods. Improve irrigation systems and enhance water storage infrastructure to mitigate water scarcity.
Africa Western and Central Electricity access, GDP growth, arable land Inadequate electrification (44.5%), slow economic growth (4.74%), and arable land shortages (11.2%). High reliance on agriculture with low electrification hampers industrialization and economic diversification. Infrastructure deficits and demographic pressures hinder economic diversification and sustainable development. Rapid population growth (2.73%) may strain limited resources if unaddressed. Prioritize public-private partnerships to mobilize funding for energy projects and promote decentralized renewable energy solutions. Provide financial and technical support for smallholder farmers to improve agricultural productivity and resilience. Implement family planning and health programs to manage demographic growth and ease pressure on infrastructure.
Central Europe and the Baltics GDP growth, renewable energy, urbanization Economic stability (3.34% GDP growth), high urbanization, and leadership in renewable energy adoption. Negative population growth (-0.364%) and labor scarcity pose challenges for economic development. Opportunity to sustain economic growth through innovation, clean energy, and technological advancement. Focus on addressing labor scarcity and fostering innovation in emerging technologies. Foster research and development in clean energy technologies, such as solar, wind, and green hydrogen. Invest in AI and advanced manufacturing to support high-tech industries. Promote inclusive urban planning with a focus on energy-efficient buildings, green infrastructure, and sustainable transportation. Strengthen regional cooperation for energy trade and resource-sharing across borders.
East Asia and the Pacific GDP growth, electricity access, urbanization Rapid economic growth (4.83%), high urbanization, and widespread electrification (95.7%). Significant industrialization and urban development have led to high electrification rates. Urbanization and industrialization must be balanced with environmental sustainability to avoid resource depletion and environmental degradation. Invest in green infrastructure, energy-efficient buildings, and sustainable urban transportation networks. Prioritize public transportation to reduce congestion and emissions. Encourage regional knowledge-sharing on sustainable development practices, focusing on renewable energy, smart grids, and circular economy models.
Europe and Central Asia Innovation, urbanization, economic growth Economic maturity (1.89% GDP growth) and focus on technological advancement. A highly urbanized region with a strong focus on innovation in clean energy and industrial sectors. Sustaining economic growth requires continual innovation, while addressing environmental challenges such as carbon emissions and resource depletion. Expand investments in emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, clean energy, and electric mobility. Encourage circular economy practices to reduce waste and environmental impact. Support sustainable urban planning that includes green spaces, efficient public transport, and energy-efficient buildings. Leverage existing infrastructure to promote inclusive economic growth and address urban inequality.
Latin America and the Caribbean Electricity access, agricultural productivity Disparities in electricity access (95.7%) and varying agricultural productivity. Rural areas face significant barriers to electricity access, and agricultural productivity is uneven across countries. Uneven development across countries requires tailored interventions that address both energy infrastructure gaps and agricultural inefficiencies. Provide financial incentives for rural electrification projects, especially for off-grid solutions. Support climate-resilient farming techniques, such as agroforestry and drought-resistant crops. Strengthen regional cooperation on environmental management, water conservation, and disaster preparedness. Invest in education and technical training for farmers to improve productivity and resilience to climate change.
Middle East and North Africa Arable land, water scarcity, GDP growth Limited arable land (4.75%) and water scarcity constrain agricultural and economic potential. Climate change and water scarcity exacerbate food security challenges. Addressing climatic and resource constraints, such as water shortages and limited agricultural land, is essential for long-term sustainability. Develop and implement advanced irrigation systems, such as drip irrigation and desalination technologies. Promote the use of precision agriculture technologies to optimize water and resource use. Invest in water management infrastructure and policies to ensure equitable access to water resources across the region. Encourage regional cooperation on transboundary water management.
South Asia Agricultural land, population growth, electrification High population growth (1.46%), dependence on agriculture (56.7% agricultural land), and significant gaps in electrification (78.3%). The region faces infrastructure deficits and demographic pressures. Rapid population growth and lack of infrastructure development hinder economic progress and exacerbate poverty. Addressing these issues is critical for managing demographic transitions. Expand access to renewable energy sources, such as solar, especially in rural and underserved areas. Provide training for farmers on modern agricultural techniques, including the use of technology for precision farming. Invest in healthcare and education to support demographic transitions, lower fertility rates, and enhance economic productivity.
Sub-Saharan Africa Electricity access, population growth, GDP growth Lowest electrification rates (36.9%), high population growth (2.72%), and heavy reliance on agriculture. Infrastructural and socioeconomic disparities are widespread, hindering progress. Integrated policies are required to address the region’s infrastructure deficits, which include energy, healthcare, and education. Population growth places significant strain on resources and services. Scale renewable energy solutions, such as mini-grids and solar power, to expand access to electricity in off-grid areas. Promote agricultural innovation through the adoption of climate-resilient farming techniques. Implement social programs that empower women, reduce fertility rates, and improve healthcare and education outcomes.

Access to electricity is emerging as a cornerstone of economic growth and improved living standards, particularly in underserved areas such as sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia. Investments in renewable energy infrastructure, combined with equitable policies, can accelerate progress toward universal electrification and promote economic inclusion. Similarly, agricultural sustainability is critical for regions where economies are heavily dependent on agriculture. Promoting climate-resilient practices and improving water conservation and irrigation infrastructure can alleviate environmental and resource constraints.

Rapid population growth is another critical challenge, particularly in developing regions. Addressing this requires comprehensive investments in health, education and women’s empowerment to support demographic transitions and ensure long-term socioeconomic stability. Urbanized and industrialized regions, meanwhile, must focus on sustaining growth through innovation, green urban planning and inclusive policies to address inequalities.

Regional disparities require coordinated efforts that prioritize both local strengths and cross-border cooperation. Tailored fiscal policies, community engagement, and knowledge-sharing mechanisms are essential to bridge development gaps and promote equitable growth. In addition, integrating population management strategies with infrastructure development, particularly in high-growth regions, can mitigate the negative effects of demographic pressures.

In summary, the path to sustainable development lies in recognizing and addressing the multiple interdependencies between energy, agriculture, population dynamics and economic systems. By adopting a balanced mix of policies that promote environmental sustainability, economic inclusiveness, and social equity, policymakers can create resilient systems capable of withstanding future challenges while ensuring that the benefits of growth are widely shared. This integrated approach is not only a necessity for regional stability, but also a global imperative to achieve long-term prosperity and sustainability.

Limitation and Recommendation for Future Study

While this study provides valuable insights into the relationships between agricultural land use, electricity access, economic growth, and demographic trends across macro-regions, several limitations should be acknowledged. A key limitation is the reliance on secondary data from the World Bank and other international databases, which, while comprehensive, may not fully capture the complexity of local economic conditions, policy interventions, or emerging trends in infrastructure development. The accuracy and reliability of these data depend on the reporting standards and data collection methods used by individual countries, which can vary significantly across regions.

In addition, this study primarily analyzes trends at the regional level, which may obscure important intra-regional or sub-national variations. In macro-regions with high internal diversity, such as sub-Saharan Africa or Europe and Central Asia, aggregated statistics may mask significant disparities between countries. Future research could benefit from subnational analysis or case studies to provide a more detailed understanding of the dynamics at play.

Future research should explore the dynamic interplay between technological progress, policy interventions and regional development outcomes. The role of innovations in renewable energy and sustainable agricultural practices should be studied in depth to understand their potential for scaling up in different regional contexts. It is also important to include a broader range of factors that influence development, such as climate change, quality of governance, and global trade, to provide a more comprehensive analysis. Finally, comparative case studies of successful development models could help identify best practices and strategies for overcoming common barriers in energy access, agricultural development and demographic management.

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